The LUYS Foundation, based on the data published by the RA Statistical Committee, analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in January-April 2022.
The rate of inflation is accelerating by quite large steps.
Ացումը The acceleration of price growth continues with bigger steps, while the Central Bank has already aggressively raised the policy interest rate. The growth rate of prices accelerated by about 1.0 percentage points in April, reaching 8.4%. The acceleration of inflation is mainly due to rising energy and food prices in the outside world. However, the growth of the latter will continue in the forecast horizon, therefore, the inflation rate in Armenia may continue to accelerate in the coming months. Under these conditions, the increase of the Central Bank interest rate has a limited effect on inflation. Therefore, the government needs to use other tools to fight inflation more effectively, including the tools of the Commission for the Protection of Economic Competition.
Referring to 2022 According to the economic activity indicators registered in January-April, it should be noted that:
Աճ The growth of the economic activity index has restored to some extent after the fall of March, but the accumulative growth is still decreasing. The WIT index slowed significantly in March due to the problems caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (mainly in industry and exports), but as they eased, the WIT growth rate recovered to 8.8% in April. At the same time, the growth of the accumulated economic activity, calculated from the beginning of the year, is still tending to slow down. 2022 In January-April, the WIT amounted to 9.4%, slowing down by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-March.
Տ The rate of economic activity may decrease due to the elimination of temporary factors. The growth of WIT is significantly conditioned by the growth of services (growth in January-April amounted to 23.5%) (trade growth in January-April accelerated to 7.8%), which in turn are based on arrivals from Russia to Armenia. on the demand of foreign citizens. Therefore, in case of a certain settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the situation may change; in the absence of internal growth factors, the economic growth rate will start to slow down. It can be stated that the Government of the Republic of Armenia has not yet taken any significant steps to take advantage of the situation. The influx of both population and capital from Russia to Armenia takes place without government support. The situation would be significantly more positive if the government developed and implemented a corresponding policy in the IT and financial spheres of individuals and legal entities from Russia, as well as to facilitate the inflow of capital and to keep it in Armenia as long as possible.
Full analysis: here:.