Yesterday with more than 3% increase on the Paris Stock Exchange, it appears that the markets are betting on “peace”.
Do the markets benefit from information that you and I do not have?
In this case, and given the seriousness of the situation, I don’t think so, and behind this increase, which looks like “good news”, hides a fairly simple calculation.
The markets are “playing” on the fact that the world will not fall into the “hot” 3rd world war and even less nuclear.
The markets logically think that the great countries of this world will refuse the collective suicide of a great war, and that therefore, at the last moment the negotiations will prevail and succeed. Peace will prevail. So you have to buy.
If ever it were different, in any case, as Einstein said “I don’t know how the Third World War will be, but what I am sure of is that the Fourth World War will be solved with sticks and sticks. flint”.
On the markets, how much is a 3rd World War worth? A good -90%!
In the markets, how much is a violent and brutal de-globalization worth? A good -70%!
Two scenarios that no investor wants to consider.
Reason why these are my central scenarios. I will come back to it in the next few days with a new Flash Strategy. My preference is for the scenario of brutal de-globalization and not for that of all-out nuclear war. That’s good news, isn’t it?
Here are some important information to remember.
The New World Order evoked by Zelensky.
“Setting up new institutions, setting up new alliances”, is what Ukrainian President Zelensky says at the end of this short video. He talks about the new world order without using the formula but it’s the same idea.
The English at work.
The English want to avoid the conflagration of the Middle East and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the obligatory passage point for all the supertankers on the planet.
What will Iran do?
Can he open a front in the Persian Gulf and cut off the world’s oil supply? Technically yes.
This departure of Boris Johnson takes place while yesterday Saudi Arabia announced its intention to trade oil in yuan.
The American Master sends his English emissary. You could even say his henchman. Will Boris twist a few wrists and break a few Saudi knees? Possible.
Moscow ready to compromise on a neutral Ukraine
“While the Kremlin affirmed that a neutrality of Ukraine on the model of Sweden and Austria was the option discussed, the Ukrainian presidency rejected this idea. Ukraine has said it wants its security vis-à-vis Russia to be guaranteed by foreign powers, which would undertake to intervene in the event of aggression. »
Negotiations are continuing on multiple fronts, from Iran to China, from Saudi Arabia to… India!
Despite the war in Ukraine, India negotiates with Moscow the purchase of oil
Narendra Modi, who refuses to condemn the Russian attack against Ukraine, ignores a little more the calls of the West to distance himself from Vladimir Putin
The information was confirmed by two Indian ministers. New Delhi is in discussions with Moscow for the purchase of cheap crude oil. India, which had already distinguished itself from its Western allies by refusing to condemn Vladimir Putin’s offensive in Ukraine and abstaining from a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning the operation, is perhaps preparing to take a further step, while the United States has repeatedly reiterated its wish that the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, distance himself from Russia.
In front of several media, the Indian Minister of Finance, Nirmala Sitharaman, had affirmed, Wednesday March 9, that Russia made an “open offer” to India for the sale of crude oil at a reduced price, but that many elements still needed to be discussed.
The war still suspended
As I have tried to show you, the situation is very complex and the negotiations concern the whole world and all nations.
For the moment, in reality, it is more the time of alliances than that of compromises.
Each of the two camps wants to know who is with them, or against them.
The positions will therefore freeze and the masks will fall.
Then there will be the final negotiation.
Russia should then increase the bidding and directly threaten the countries of Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and Poland. Putin could declare on this occasion that the measures taken against Russia are acts of war and that Russia considers that the 3rd world war has started.
The ultimate question will then arise for all.
Do we prefer the path of war or that of negotiation and compromise with Russia?
Last minute. It’s Wednesday the 16th at 8:48 p.m. Will an agreement be found for Ukraine, while at the same time the United States has just announced the shipment of a large number of arms and ammunition to kyiv?
What suspense!
Tick tock, tick tock…
Prepare yourselves !
www.economiematin.fr
